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The two questions we receive most often are: 1) Why are global equities continuing to rally despite disappointing economic data, and 2) Why are earnings being revised down in every region we follow? Those who are bearish point to the action in the bond market where the recent drop in yields and inversions in parts of the US Treasury curve suggest that the dovish pivot is too little, too late. In our view, the equity markets are looking through the current soft patch and have faith that the dovish reversal from global central banks as well as Chinese stimulus will halt the slide in growth and reverse the deterioration in earnings expectations. This current period could be somewhat like 1994 or 1998 where the Fed provided mini-easing cycles in the midst of the longer-term tightening period due to volatility that came from outside the US.
El potencial cambio de régimen en Venezuela ha puesto al país en la mira de la comunidad internacional. Un sinnúmero de Estados han reconocido al presidente encargado, Juan Guaidó. Se han realizado manifestaciones de todo tipo en pro del cambio, e incluso el nuevo presidente sigue desafiando a Nicolás Maduro al haber regresado a Venezuela pese a existir una prohibición de salida, arriesgando prisión por ello.
After the incredibly strong start to the year for global equity markets, it’s important to consider the conditions that led to the fourth quarter 2018 volatility and where those indicators are today. In early October, US Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech that indicated a protracted cold war between the US and China; the Fed suggested that several rate hikes would be coming as they were “a long way from neutral” and that shrinking their balance sheet was on auto pilot; the 10 year treasury yield was 3.2%; West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) was above $75 per barrel; 2019 S&P 500 earnings were expected to be nearly $180; and the forward P/E multiple was 16.8x.
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