After the dismal December for equity markets, January brought relief with the MSCI All Country World recovering 7.9%. While many macro concerns remain – a slowing China, Brexit, an Italian recession and noise from Washington – one major headwind was removed: tighter US monetary policy. During January, the Fed shifted its policy stance from tightening to one of patience and flexibility. We view the risk / reward in the S&P 500 as roughly balanced and maintain our recommendation to maintain a neutral strategic weight. Consensus earnings estimates for 2019 have been reduced to levels that are consistent with ours and valuation have come down.