/ 7 Mar 2018
As we entered 2018, we recognized that equity markets would be more volatile than in 2017, as global equities exhibited near-record calm in the postelection period. However, believing that something is likely to happen is much different than knowing the timing, magnitude and reason, but by expecting the volatility, we were able to have a plan to react to it. Although the decline in global equities during February was faster than estimated, our consistent checklist of market factors has helped us maintain our overweight view, rather than over-reacting at the wrong time.
/ 6 Feb 2018
We recently spent a week in Japan meeting with 20 companies, the Bank of Japan (“BoJ”), the Cabinet Office and the Japanese External Trade Organization (“JETRO”). While we were very familiar with the Prime Minister Abe’s extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies, we were surprised by the magnitude and impact of the structural reforms, the so-called “third arrow.” In 2014, when Abe characterized the structural reforms as 1,000 needles, it left many economists and strategists under-whelmed. It was the opposite of the shock and awe of Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing. However, three years later, seeing the impact of many small on the very strong Japanese business culture is amazing.
/ 31 Ene 2018
In 2017, the global economy had its best economic performance in recent memory. The resurgence was not focused in any particular region as growth was both global and synchronized. In 2018, we expect growth to remain robust with global GDP expanding 3.8% over last year.
/ 14 Dic 2017
Where’s My Inflation? Virtuous circles, in which good news begets good news, tend to lead to the most sustainable economic recoveries. The period in which we find ourselves today is looking more and more like a textbook example of a virtuous cycle. Good news has recently become widespread and global.