/ 8 Fev 2019
(Español) After the dismal December for equity markets, January brought relief with the MSCI All Country World recovering 7.9%. While many macro concerns remain – a slowing China, Brexit, an Italian recession and noise from Washington – one major headwind was removed: tighter US monetary policy. During January, the Fed shifted its policy stance from tightening to one of patience and flexibility. We view the risk / reward in the S&P 500 as roughly balanced and maintain our recommendation to maintain a neutral strategic weight. Consensus earnings estimates for 2019 have been reduced to levels that are consistent with ours and valuation have come down.
/ 24 Jan 2019
(Español) When we reduced our recommended allocation to US equities in mid- November, we did not envision the 9% drop in the S&P 500 or the 7% decline in the MSCI All Country World that occurred during December. Equity markets were led down by two of the key market challenges that we cited in November: US-China trade tensions and monetary policy. However, financial markets and their psychological impact on the real economy may encourage US and Chinese leaders to expedite a trade deal and could focus central banks on macro challenges that they have not yet considered. We will be watching for any signs of movement on these two critical influences.
/ 26 Nov 2018
(Español) Los recientes anuncios de AMLO o Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, me hizo recordar la canción de un programa de fútbol emitido en la televisión de nuestro país para el Mundial de México 86. Con gran ritmo y alegría, parte de la letra decía:"…bienvenido, México saluda a sus amigos". Hoy, a menos de dos semanas de jurar como próximo presidente de México, los mensajes de AMLO para los inversionistas extranjeros no han sido necesariamente de bienvenida.
/ 5 Out 2018
We have written many times about the confluence of factors that we believe will lead to the outperformance of Japanese equities including better than recognized fundamentals; attractive valuations and a global investor base that has largely ignored this market. Last month, we highlighted the Japanese election as a referendum on Prime Minister Abe and his reform policies that are underpinning one of the longest expansions in the countries history.